InvestStrat

The Fed Indicator

The Fed’s arsenal includes the Discount Rate, the Federal Funds Rate and changing Reserve Requirements.

The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate banks can use to borrow from each other.

The Discount Rate is the interest rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions on loans they receive from their regional Federal Reserve Bank's lending facility - the discount window. Loans are extended for a very short term (usually overnight) to depository institutions who are in a generally sound financial condition.

Quantitative Easing (QE) is used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective as interest rates are already at or near zero. The Fed implements quantitative easing by buying financial assets from commercial banks and other private institutions, thus creating money and injecting a pre-determined quantity into the economy.

Operation Twist was a variation of this policy and the Fed bought longer-term Treasuries and simultaneously sold shorter-dated issues it already held in order to bring down long-term interest rates.

The level of Reserve Requirements can either liberalize or restrict the ability of banks to make loans.

Calculation

Rules

Grade the Rates and Reserve Requirements separately.

(Zweig intended major policy moves in Reserve Requirements to trigger a change but the Fed has only occasionally used this tool in this way. So this model uses an effective change of at least US$1 billion.)

The score for the Discount Rate and Federal Funds Rates are averaged as Zweig suggested using just one of these rates. This average score is then added to the Reserve Requirements to give the Fed Indicator.

Although Zweig did not consider Quantitative Easing or Operation Twist, an alternative model which considers these policies is included. As Zweig’s model has a set maximum and minimum score this column is averaged with the Discount Rate and Federal Funds rate and the rounded figure is then added to the points from the Reserve Requirements to give the Fed Indicator points.

An initial cut or increase wipes out any positive or negative points not only in this tool but also in the total average score of all the Fed’s policy tools. The cell in which this occurs is marked light grey in the table.

An increase in the Discount Rate, Federal Funds Rate or Reserve Requirements is bearish.

Sell Signals

  1. A hike in either one receives minus one point for that component of the Fed Indicator. It would also wipe out any positive points that might have been there at the time. The negative point remains for six months after which it becomes ‘stale’ and is discarded.

Buy Signals

  1. Moves by the Fed toward easing have a greater positive impact on stock prices than the negative effect created by tightening moves. An initial cut in either of the two tools not only wipes out any negative points that may have accumulated but it also kicks in two positive points.
  1. An initial cut is the first one following a rise in that component. A cut is initial if it marks the first change in that instrument in at least two years. As an initial change grows stale, one of the two points is lost six months later and the remaining point falls a year later.
  1. If a second reduction were made in the discount rate, it would add one more point, for a total of three points. That point resulting from the second cut, would become stale six months later and would drop out. Third, fourth, fifth and more consecutive cuts are treated in the same way.

 

Fed Indicator

Extremely Bullish = +2 or more points

Neutral = 0 or +1 point

Bearish = -1 or –2 points

Extremely Bearish = -3 or fewer points

 

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The Fed Indicator

The Federal Funds Rate
Year Month Increase/ Decrease Fade Total Grade
  September -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
  August     -2 Mod Bearish
  July     -2 Mod Bearish
  June -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
  May     -2 Mod Bearish
  April     -2 Mod Bearish
  March -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
2018 January     -1 Mod Bearish
2017 December -1 1 -1 Mod Bearish
  November     -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September   1 -1 Mod Bearish
  August     -2 Mod Bearish
  July     -2 Mod Bearish
  June -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
  May     -2 Mod Bearish
  April     -2 Mod Bearish
  March -1   -2 Mod Bearish
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
2017 January     -1 Mod Bearish
2016 December -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May   1 -1 Mod Bearish
  April     -1 Mod Bearish
  March     -1 Mod Bearish
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
2016 January     -1 Mod Bearish
2015 December -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2015 January     0 Neutral
2014 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2014 January     0 Neutral
2013 December     0 Neutral
November 0 Neutral
October 0 Neutral
September 0 Neutral
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June 0 Neutral
May 0 Neutral
April 0 Neutral
March 0 Neutral
February 0 Neutral
2013 January 0 Neutral
2012 December 0 Neutral
November 0 Neutral
October 0 Neutral
September 0 Neutral
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June 0 Neutral
May 0 Neutral
April 0 Neutral
March 0 Neutral
February 0 Neutral
2012 January 0 Neutral
2011 December 0 Neutral
November 0 Neutral
October 0 Neutral
September 0 Neutral
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June 0 Neutral
May 0 Neutral
April 0 Neutral
March 0 Neutral
February 0 Neutral
2011 January 0 Neutral
2010 December 0 Neutral
November 0 Neutral
October 0 Neutral
September 0 Neutral
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June 0 Neutral
May 0 Neutral
April 0 Neutral
March 0 Neutral
February 0 Neutral
2010 January 0 Neutral
2009 December 0 Neutral
November 0 Neutral
October 0 Neutral
September 0 Neutral
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June -1 0 Neutral
May 1 Neutral
April -2 1 Neutral
March 3 Ex Bullish
February 3 Ex Bullish
2009 January 3 Ex Bullish
2008 December 1 3 Ex Bullish
November 2 Ex Bullish
October 2 -1 2 Ex Bullish
September -2 1 Neutral
August 3 Ex Bullish
July -2 3 Ex Bullish
June -1 5 Ex Bullish
May 6 Ex Bullish
April 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
March 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
February 6 Ex Bullish
2008 January 2 6 Ex Bullish
2007 December 1 4 Ex Bullish
November 3 Ex Bullish
October 1 3 Ex Bullish
September 2 2 Ex Bullish
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June 0 Neutral
May 0 Neutral
April 0 Neutral
March 0 Neutral
February 0 Neutral
2007 January 0 Neutral
2006 December 1 0 Neutral
November 1 -1 Mod Bearish
October -2 Mod Bearish
September 1 -2 Mod Bearish
August -3 Ex Bearish
July 1 -3 Ex Bearish
June -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
May -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
April -4 Ex Bearish
March -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
February 1 -4 Ex Bearish
2006 January -1 -5 Ex Bearish
2005 December -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
November -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
October -4 Ex Bearish
September -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
August -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
July -4 Ex Bearish
June -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
May -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
April -4 Ex Bearish
March -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
February -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
2005 January -4 Ex Bearish
2004 December -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
November -1 -4 Ex Bearish
October -3 Ex Bearish
September -1 -3 Ex Bearish
August -1 -2 Mod Bearish
July -1 Mod Bearish
June -1 -1 Mod Bearish
May 0 Neutral
April 0 Neutral
March 0 Neutral
February 0 Neutral
2004 January 0 Neutral
2003 December -1 0 Neutral
November 1 Neutral
October 1 Neutral
September 1 Neutral
August 1 Neutral
July 1 Neutral
June 1 1 Neutral
May -1 0 Neutral
April 1 Neutral
March 1 Neutral
February 1 Neutral
2003 January 1 Neutral
2002 December 1 Neutral
November 1 1 Neutral
October 0 Neutral
September 0 Neutral
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June -1 0 Neutral
May -1 1 Neutral
April -1 2 Ex Bullish
March -1 3 Ex Bullish
February -1 4 Ex Bullish
2002 January -1 5 Ex Bullish
2001 December 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
November 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
October 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
September 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
August 1 6 Ex Bullish
July -2 5 Ex Bullish
June 1 7 Ex Bullish
May 1 6 Ex Bullish
April 1 5 Ex Bullish
March 1 4 Ex Bullish
February 3 Ex Bullish
2001 January 3 3 Ex Bullish
2000 December -1 Mod Bearish
November 1 -1 Mod Bearish
October -2 Mod Bearish
September 1 -2 Mod Bearish
August 1 -3 Ex Bearish
July -4 Ex Bearish
June -4 Ex Bearish
May -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
April -4 Ex Bearish
March -1 -4 Ex Bearish
February -1 1 -3 Ex Bearish
2000 January -3 Ex Bearish
1999 December 1 -3 Ex Bearish
November -1 -4 Ex Bearish
October -3 Ex Bearish
September -1 -3 Ex Bearish
August -1 -2 Mod Bearish
July -1 Mod Bearish
June -1 -1 Mod Bearish
May -1 1 Neutral
April -1 2 Ex Bullish
March -1 3 Ex Bullish
February 4 Ex Bullish
1999 January 4 Ex Bullish
1998 December 4 Ex Bullish
November 1 4 Ex Bullish
October 1 3 Ex Bullish
September 2 2 Ex Bullish
August 0 Neutral
July 0 Neutral
June 0 Neutral
May 0 Neutral
April 0 Neutral
March 0 Neutral
February 0 Neutral
1998 January 0 Neutral
1997 December 0 Neutral
November 0 Neutral
October 0 Neutral
September 1 0 Neutral
August -1 Mod Bearish
July -1 Mod Bearish
June -1 Mod Bearish
May -1 Mod Bearish
April -1 Mod Bearish
March -1 -1 Mod Bearish
February 1 Neutral
1997 January 1 Neutral
1996 December 1 Neutral
November 1 Neutral
October 1 Neutral
September 1 Neutral
August 1 Neutral
July -2 1 Neutral
June -1 3 Ex Bullish
May 4 Ex Bullish
April 4 Ex Bullish
March 4 Ex Bullish
February 4 Ex Bullish
1996 January 1 -1 4 Ex Bullish
1995 December 1 4 Ex Bullish
November 3 Ex Bullish
October 3 Ex Bullish
September 3 Ex Bullish
August 1 3 Ex Bullish
July 2 2 Ex Bullish
June -1 Mod Bearish
May 1 -1 Mod Bearish
April -2 Mod Bearish
March -2 Mod Bearish
February -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
1995 January -2 Mod Bearish
1994 December -2 Mod Bearish
November -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
October 1 -2 Mod Bearish
September 1 -3 Ex Bearish
August -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
July -4 Ex Bearish
June -4 Ex Bearish
May -1 -4 Ex Bearish
April -1 -3 Ex Bearish
March -1 -2 Mod Bearish
February -1 -1 Mod Bearish
1994 January 6 Ex Bullish
1993 December 6 Ex Bullish
November 6 Ex Bullish
October 6 Ex Bullish
September 6 Ex Bullish
August 6 Ex Bullish
July 6 Ex Bullish
June 6 Ex Bullish
May 6 Ex Bullish
April 6 Ex Bullish
March -1 6 Ex Bullish
February 7 Ex Bullish
1993 January -1 7 Ex Bullish
1992 December 8 Ex Bullish
November 8 Ex Bullish
October -1 8 Ex Bullish
September 1 9 Ex Bullish
August 8 Ex Bullish
July 1 8 Ex Bullish
June -2 7 Ex Bullish
May -1 9 Ex Bullish
April 1 -1 10 Ex Bullish
March -1 10 Ex Bullish
February -1 11 Ex Bullish
1992 January 12 Ex Bullish
1991 December 2 12 Ex Bullish
November 1 10 Ex Bullish
October 1 -1 9 Ex Bullish
September 1 -1 9 Ex Bullish
August 1 -1 9 Ex Bullish
July -1 9 Ex Bullish
June -2 10 Ex Bullish
May -1 12 Ex Bullish
April 1 -1 13 Ex Bullish
March 1 13 Ex Bullish
February 1 12 Ex Bullish
1991 January 1 -1 11 Ex Bullish
1990 December 2 11 Ex Bullish
November 1 9 Ex Bullish
October 1 8 Ex Bullish
September 7 Ex Bullish
August 7 Ex Bullish
July 1 7 Ex Bullish
June -1 6 Ex Bullish
May -1 7 Ex Bullish
April -1 8 Ex Bullish
March -1 9 Ex Bullish
February -1 10 Ex Bullish
1990 January -1 11 Ex Bullish
1989 December 1 12 Ex Bullish
November 1 11 Ex Bullish
October 1 10 Ex Bullish
September 1 9 Ex Bullish
August 1 2 8 Ex Bullish
July 1 1 5 Ex Bullish
June 2 1 3 Ex Bullish
May 1 -7 Ex Bearish
April -8 Ex Bearish
March -8 Ex Bearish
February -2 2 -8 Ex Bearish
1989 January -1 1 -8 Ex Bearish
1988 December -1 1 -8 Ex Bearish
November -1 1 -8 Ex Bearish
October 0 -8 Ex Bearish
September 1 -8 Ex Bearish
August -2 -9 Ex Bearish
July -1 -1 -7 Ex Bearish
June -1 -5 Ex Bearish
May -1 -4 Ex Bearish
April -1 -1 -3 Ex Bearish
March -1 2 -1 Mod Bearish
February 5 Ex Bullish
1988 January 1 5 Ex Bullish
1987 December 4 Ex Bullish
November 1 4 Ex Bullish
October 2 1 3 Ex Bullish
September -2 -6 Ex Bearish
August 2 -4 Ex Bearish
July -1 -6 Ex Bearish
June 1 -5 Ex Bearish
May -1 -6 Ex Bearish
April -1 -5 Ex Bearish
March -4 Ex Bearish
February -2 -4 Ex Bearish
1987 January -1 -2 Mod Bearish
1986 December -1 -1
November 1 3
October -1 2
September -1 3
August 2 4
July 2 2
June -1 -2
May -1 -1
April 1 2
March 1 1
February 0
1986 January 0


The Discount Rate
Year Month Increase/ Decrease Fade Total Grade
  September -1 1 -2 mod bearish
  August     -2 Mod Bearish
  July     -2 Mod Bearish
  June -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
  May     -2 Mod Bearish
  April     -2 Mod Bearish
  March     -2 Mod Bearish
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
  January     -1 Mod Bearish
2018 December -1 1 -1 Mod Bearish
2017 November     -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September   1 -1 Mod Bearish
  August     -2 Mod Bearish
  July     -2 Mod Bearish
  June -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
  May     -2 Mod Bearish
  April     -2 Mod Bearish
  March -1   -2 Mod Bearish
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
2017 January     -1 Mod Bearish
2016 December -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May   1 -1 Mod Bearish
  April     -1 Mod Bearish
  March     -1 Mod Bearish
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
2016 January     -1 Mod Bearish
2015 December -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2015 January     0 Neutral
2014 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2014 January     0 Neutral
2013 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2013 January     0 Neutral
2012 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2012 January     0 Neutral
2011 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2011 January     0 Neutral
2010 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August   1 0 Neutral
  July     -1 Mod Bearish
  June     -1 Mod Bearish
  May     -1 Mod Bearish
  April     -1 Mod Bearish
  March     -1 Mod Bearish
  February -1   -1 Mod Bearish
2010 January     0 Neutral
2009 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June   -1 0 Neutral
  May     1 Neutral
  April   -2 1 Neutral
  March     3 Ex Bullish
  February     3 Ex Bullish
2009 January     3 Ex Bullish
2008 December 1   3 Ex Bullish
  November     2 Ex Bullish
  October 2 -1 2 Ex Bullish
  September   -2 1 Neutral
  August   -1 3 Ex Bullish
  July   -2 4 Ex Bullish
  June   -1 6 Ex Bullish
  May     7 Ex Bullish
  April 1 -1 7 Ex Bullish
  March 2 -1 7 Ex Bullish
  February   -1 6 Ex Bullish
2008 January 2   7 Ex Bullish
2007 December 1   5 Ex Bullish
  November     4 Ex Bullish
  October 1   4 Ex Bullish
  September 1   3 Ex Bullish
  August 2   2 Ex Bullish
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2007 January     0 Neutral
2006 December   1 0 Neutral
  November   1 -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -2 Mod Bearish
  September   1 -2 Mod Bearish
  August     -3 Ex Bearish
  July   1 -3 Ex Bearish
  June -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  May -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  April     -4 Ex Bearish
  March -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  February   1 -4 Ex Bearish
2006 January -1   -5 Ex Bearish
2005 December -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  November -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  October     -4 Ex Bearish
  September -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  August -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  July     -4 Ex Bearish
  June -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  May -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  April     -4 Ex Bearish
  March -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  February -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
2005 January     -4 Ex Bearish
2004 December -1 1 -4 Ex Bearish
  November -1   -4 Ex Bearish
  October     -3 Ex Bearish
  September -1   -3 Ex Bearish
  August -1   -2 Mod Bearish
  July     -1 Mod Bearish
  June -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2004 January     0 Neutral
2003 December   -1 0 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July     1 Neutral
  June 1   1 Neutral
  May   -1 0 Neutral
  April     1 Neutral
  March     1 Neutral
  February     1 Neutral
2003 January     1 Neutral
2002 December     1 Neutral
  November 1   1 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June   -1 0 Neutral
  May   -1 1 Neutral
  April   -1 2 Ex Bullish
  March   -1 3 Ex Bullish
  February   -1 4 Ex Bullish
2002 January   -1 5 Ex Bullish
2001 December 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
  November 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
  October 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
  September 1 -1 6 Ex Bullish
  August 1   6 Ex Bullish
  July   -3 5 Ex Bullish
  June 1   8 Ex Bullish
  May 1   7 Ex Bullish
  April 1   6 Ex Bullish
  March 1   5 Ex Bullish
  February     4 Ex Bullish
2001 January 4   4 Ex Bullish
2000 December     0 Neutral
  November   1 0 Neutral
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September   1 -1 Mod Bearish
  August   1 -2 Mod Bearish
  July     -3 Ex Bearish
  June     -3 Ex Bearish
  May -1 1 -3 Ex Bearish
  April     -3 Ex Bearish
  March -1   -3 Ex Bearish
  February -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
2000 January     -2 Mod Bearish
1999 December     -2 Mod Bearish
  November -1   -2 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September     -1 Mod Bearish
  August -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May   -1 0 Neutral
  April   -1 1 Neutral
  March     2 Ex Bullish
  February     2 Ex Bullish
1999 January     2 Ex Bullish
1998 December     2 Ex Bullish
  November 1   2 Ex Bullish
  October 1   1 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1998 January     0 Neutral
1997 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1997 January   -1 0 Neutral
1996 December     1 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July   -1 1 Neutral
  June     2 Ex Bullish
  May     2 Ex Bullish
  April     2 Ex Bullish
  March     2 Ex Bullish
  February     2 Ex Bullish
1996 January 2   2 Ex Bullish
1995 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August   1 0 Neutral
  July     -1 Mod Bearish
  June     -1 Mod Bearish
  May   1 -1 Mod Bearish
  April     -2 Mod Bearish
  March     -2 Mod Bearish
  February -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
1995 January     -2 Mod Bearish
1994 December     -2 Mod Bearish
  November -1 1 -2 Mod Bearish
  October     -2 Mod Bearish
  September     -2 Mod Bearish
  August -1   -2 Mod Bearish
  July     -1 Mod Bearish
  June     -1 Mod Bearish
  May -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1994 January     0 Neutral
1993 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1993 January   -1 0 Neutral
1992 December     1 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July 1   1 Neutral
  June   -2 0 Neutral
  May   -1 2 Ex Bullish
  April     3 Ex Bullish
  March   -1 3 Ex Bullish
  February     4 Ex Bullish
1992 January     4 Ex Bullish
1991 December 2 -1 4 Ex Bullish
  November 1   3 Ex Bullish
  October   -1 2 Ex Bullish
  September 1   3 Ex Bullish
  August   -1 2 Ex Bullish
  July     3 Ex Bullish
  June   -1 3 Ex Bullish
  May     4 Ex Bullish
  April 1   4 Ex Bullish
  March     3 Ex Bullish
  February 1   3 Ex Bullish
1991 January     2 Ex Bullish
1990 December 2   2 Ex Bullish
  November     -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September     -1 Mod Bearish
  August     -1 Mod Bearish
  July     -1 Mod Bearish
  June     -1 Mod Bearish
  May     -1 Mod Bearish
  April     -1 Mod Bearish
  March     -1 Mod Bearish
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
  January     -1 Mod Bearish
1990 December     -1 Mod Bearish
1989 November     -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September     -1 Mod Bearish
  August     -1 Mod Bearish
  July     -1 Mod Bearish
  June     -1 Mod Bearish
  May     -1 Mod Bearish
  April     -1 Mod Bearish
  March     -1 Mod Bearish
  February -1 1 -1 Mod Bearish
1989 January     -1 Mod Bearish
1988 December     -1 Mod Bearish
  November     -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September     -1 Mod Bearish
  August -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March   1 0 Neutral
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
1988 January     -1 Mod Bearish
1987 December     -1 Mod Bearish
  November     -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February   -1 0 Neutral
1987 January   -1 1 Neutral
1986 December     2  
  November     2  
  October   -1 2  
  September   -1 3  
  August 1   4  
  July 1   3  
  June     2  
  May     2  
  April 1   2  
  March 1   1  
  February     0  
1986 January     0  


Optional Quantitative Easing
Year Month Increase/ Decrease Fade Total Grade
2013 December        
  November        
  October        
  September   -1 0 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July     1 Neutral
  June     1 Neutral
  May     1 Neutral
  April     1 Neutral
  March   -1 1 Neutral
  February     2 Ex Bullish
2013 January   -1 2 Ex Bullish
2012 December     3 Ex Bullish
  November     3 Ex Bullish
  October     3 Ex Bullish
  September 2   3 Ex Bullish
  August     1 Neutral
  July 1   1 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March   -1 0 Neutral
  February     1 Neutral
2012 January     1 Neutral
2011 December     1 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September 1   1 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February   -1 0 Neutral
2011 January     1 Neutral
2010 December     1 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August 1   1 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2010 January     0 Neutral
2009 December     0 Neutral
  November   -1 0 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July     1 Neutral
  June     1 Neutral
  May   -1 1 Neutral
  April     2 Ex Bullish
  March     2 Ex Bullish
  February     2 Ex Bullish
2009 January     2 Ex Bullish
2008 December     2 Ex Bullish
  November 2   2 Ex Bullish


Reserve Requirements
Year Month Increase/ Decrease Fade Total Grade
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2018 January     0 Neutral
2017 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2017 January     0 Neutral
2016 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2016 January     0 Neutral
2015 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2015 January     0 Neutral
2014 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2014 January     0 Neutral
2013 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2013 January     0 Neutral
2012 December   -1 0 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July     1 Neutral
  June   -1 1 Neutral
  May     2 Ex Bullish
  April     2 Ex Bullish
  March     2 Ex Bullish
  February     2 Ex Bullish
2012 January     2 Ex Bullish
2011 December 2   2 Ex Bullish
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2011 January     0 Neutral
2010 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2010 January     0 Neutral
2009 December   -1 0 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July     1 Neutral
  June   -1 1 Neutral
  May     2 Ex Bullish
  April     2 Ex Bullish
  March     2 Ex Bullish
  February     2 Ex Bullish
2009 January     2 Ex Bullish
2008 December 2   2 Ex Bullish
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2008 January     0 Neutral
2007 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2007 January     0 Neutral
2006 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2006 January     0 Neutral
2005 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2005 January     0 Neutral
2004 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2004 January     0 Neutral
2003 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2003 January     0 Neutral
2002 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2002 January     0 Neutral
2001 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2001 January     0 Neutral
2000 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
2000 January     0 Neutral
1999 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1999 January     0 Neutral
1998 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1998 January     0 Neutral
1997 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1997 January     0 Neutral
1996 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1996 January     0 Neutral
1995 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1995 January     0 Neutral
1994 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1994 January     0 Neutral
1993 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April   -1 0 Neutral
  March     1 Neutral
  February     1 Neutral
1993 January     1 Neutral
1992 December     1 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October   -1 1 Neutral
  September     2 Ex Bullish
  August     2 Ex Bullish
  July     2 Ex Bullish
  June     2 Ex Bullish
  May     2 Ex Bullish
  April 2   2 Ex Bullish
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1992 January     0 Neutral
1991 December   -1 0 Neutral
  November     1 Neutral
  October     1 Neutral
  September     1 Neutral
  August     1 Neutral
  July     1 Neutral
  June   -2 1 Neutral
  May     3 Ex Bullish
  April     3 Ex Bullish
  March     3 Ex Bullish
  February     3 Ex Bullish
1991 January     3 Ex Bullish
1990 December 3   3 Ex Bullish
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
  January     0 Neutral
1990 December     0 Neutral
1989 November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March     0 Neutral
  February     0 Neutral
1989 January     0 Neutral
1988 December     0 Neutral
  November     0 Neutral
  October     0 Neutral
  September     0 Neutral
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March   1 0 Neutral
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
1988 January     -1 Mod Bearish
1987 December     -1 Mod Bearish
  November     -1 Mod Bearish
  October     -1 Mod Bearish
  September -1   -1 Mod Bearish
  August     0 Neutral
  July     0 Neutral
  June     0 Neutral
  May     0 Neutral
  April     0 Neutral
  March   1 0 Neutral
  February     -1 Mod Bearish
1987 January     -1 Mod Bearish
1986 December     -1  
  November     -1  
  October     -1  
  September -1   -1  
  August     0  
  July     0  
  June     0  
  May     0  
  April     0  
  March     0  
  February     0  
1986 January     0  

 

Installment Debt Indicator