InvestStrat

Installment Debt Indicator

Loan demand has an important effect on interest rates. High demand for loans puts upward pressure on rates, whilst low demand works to lower interest rates. There are many major sources of loan demand including federal, state, and local borrowings together with corporate borrowings in commercial paper debt, longer term bond markets, mortgage debt and consumer installment debt. Zweig’s studies showed him that consumer installment debt has been a good predictor of stock market changes.

Installment debt is issued with the condition of regularly occurring intervals of payment by the debtor, until the principal and interest are paid in full. It is a loan for larger items such as cars that individuals do not have the ready cash to purchase.

Consumer debt includes mortgage debt, credit card debt and installment debt (mainly formed from automobile loans and student loans). Zweig suggests you use the Federal Reserve G.19 statistic for consumer installment debt. However the Fed now refers to this as Consumer Credit Outstanding and the consumer installment debt is now the nonrevolving part of this figure.

Calculation

Consumer Installment Debt – calculated using a non-seasonally adjusted number.

Take total for the month and divide by the total for the same month a year ago. Then subtract 1.0. That gives you the percentage change in installment debt on a year-to-year basis.

Where the data is missing, the inferred signal points are marked in red.

Rules

A buy signal is given when the year-to-year change in installment debt has been falling and drops to under 9%.

A sell signal comes when the year to year change has been rising and hits 9% or more.

Installment Debt Indicator

When the installment debt indicator gives a buy signal award 2 model points

When it gives a sell signal give zero points

 

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Installment Debt Indicator

Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Outstanding Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Date G.19 Percentage Change Year-on-Year Signal Points
Due to a lack of data some figures are projections and these are shown in red.
Nov 19       2
Oct 19       2
Sep 19 3092181.25 5.3 Bullish 2
Aug 19 3074959.66 5.5 Bullish 2
Jul 19 3038620.59 5.4 Bullish 2
Jun 19 3024820.06 5.5 Bullish 2
May 19 3014039.97 5.3 Bullish 2
Apr 19 3005279.98 5.5 Bullish 2
Mar 19 2994973.57 5.5 Bullish 2
Feb 19 2992031.00 5.5 Bullish 2
Jan 19 2989129.02 5.4 Bullish 2
Dec 18 2956276.65 5.4 Bullish 2
Nov 18 2948969.28 5.2 Bullish 2
Oct 18 2945260.11 5.3 Bullish 2
Sept 18 2935422.52 5.4 Bullish 2
Aug 18 2915984.27 5.0 Bullish 2
July 18 2883233.99 4.7 Bullish 2
June 18 2868023.65 4.6 Bullish 2
May 18 2861338.97 4.7 Bullish 2
Apr 18 2848714.12 4.6 Bullish 2
Mar 18 2838228.35 4.7 Bullish 2
Feb 18 2837044.20 4.6 Bullish 2
Jan 18 2835055.82 4.7 Bullish 2
Dec 17 2806115.45 4.9 Bullish 2
Nov 17 2804232.48 4.9 Bullish 2
Oct 17 2796946.93 4.7 Bullish 2
Sep 17 2785975.84 4.9 Bullish 2
Aug 17 2776052.22 5.3 Bullish 2
Jul 17 2754159.06 5.9 Bullish 2
Jun 17 2742369.73 6.0 Bullish 2
May 17 2733439.27 6.0 Bullish 2
Apr 17 2723961.53 6.2 Bullish 2
Mar 17 2711604.97 6.4 Bullish 2
Feb 17 2711190.67 6.6 Bullish 2
Jan 17 2708245.06 6.7 Bullish 2
Dec 16 2676182.95 6.9 Bullish 2
Nov 16 2672510.19 2.8 Bullish 2
Oct 16 2671097.36 2.9 Bullish 2
Sep 16 2657063.12 2.7 Bullish 2
Aug 16 2636129.27 3.0 Bullish 2
July 16 2599962.69 2.7 Bullish 2
June 16 2587792.86 2.7 Bullish 2
May 16 2579322.79 3.2 Bullish 2
Apr 16 2564924.87 3.2 Bullish 2
Mar 16 2547490.62 3.1 Bullish 2
Feb 16 2542665.73 3.2 Bullish 2
Jan 16 2538878.41 3.4 Bullish 2
Dec 15 2504252.20 3.3 Bullish 2
Nov 15 2599229.75 8.0 Bullish 2
Oct 15 2596065.47 8.1 Bullish 2
Sep 15 2586580.01 7.9 Bullish 2
Aug 15 2559218.63 7.8 Bullish 2
July 15 2531512.86 8.1 Bullish 2
June 15 2519474.80 8.2 Bullish 2
May 15 2498902.00 8.1 Bullish 2
Apr 15 2485160.50 8.1 Bullish 2
Mar 15 2471026.10 8.2 Bullish 2
Feb 15 2463134.30 8.3 Bullish 2
Jan 15 2455386.43 8.2 Bullish 2
Dec 14 2424487.44 8.4 Bullish 2
Nov 14 2407256.55 8.0 Bullish 2
Oct 14 2401207.96 8.1 Bullish 2
Sept 14 2396768.61 8.3 Bullish 2
Aug 14 2374621.16 8.4 Bullish 2
Jul 14 2342738.00 8.5 Bullish 2
Jun 14 2328354.47 8.4 Bullish 2
May 14 2311960.34 8.3 Bullish 2
Apr 14 2298486.16 8.2 Bullish 2
Mar 14 2282968.93 8.0 Bullish 2
Feb 14 2274976.74 7.7 Bullish 2
Jan 14 2270052.31 7.9 Bullish 2
Dec 13 2236749.97 7.9 Bullish 2
Nov 13 2229359.29 8.1 Bullish 2
Oct 13 2222240.03 8.3 Bullish 2
Sep 13 2212911.49 8.3 Bullish 2
Aug 13 2190783.79 8.1 Bullish 2
Jul 13 2159583.44 8.1 Bullish 2
Jun 13 2147923.01 8.0 Bullish 2
May 13 2134228.81 8.1 Bullish 2
Apr 13 2124825.05 8.2 Bullish 2
Mar 13 2114802.67 8.5 Bullish 2
Feb 13 2111506.83 8.7 Bullish 2
Jan 13 2104714.12 8.1 Bullish 2
Dec 12 2073209.18 8.2 Bullish 2
Nov 12 2062763.18 8.0 Bullish 2
Oct 12 2052370.46 8.0 Bullish 2
Sep 12 2042803.67 7.7 Bullish 2
Aug 12 2026935.56 7.6 Bullish 2
Jul 12 1997214.03 6.5 Bullish 2
Jun 12 1988328.67 7.3 Bullish 2
May 12 1974779.02 6.9 Bullish 2
Apr 12 1963436.40 6.4 Bullish 2
Mar 12 1948963.31 6.1 Bullish 2
Feb 12 1943286.23 5.7 Bullish 2
Jan 12 1947132.86 5.8 Bullish 2
Dec 11 1916207.63 6.0 Bullish 2
Nov 11 1909605.21 13.4 Bearish 0
Oct 11 1900128.63 12.8 Bearish 0
Sep 11 1897207.00 13.3 Bearish 0
Aug 11 1883521.36 13.2 Bearish 0
Jul 11 1874980.56 14.2 Bearish 0
Jun 11 1852934.20 13.2 Bearish 0
May 11 1847907.80 13.0 Bearish 0
Apr 11 1845128.44 12.8 Bearish 0
Mar 11 1836566.53 12.1 Bearish 0
Feb 11 1838718.78 12.4 Bearish 0
Jan 11 1840406.83 11.4 Bearish 0
Dec 10 1807708.59 10.3 Bearish 0
Nov 10 1684736.73 3.2 Bullish 2
Oct 10 1684358.03 3.3 Bullish 2
Sep 10 1674771.22 2.0 Bullish 2
Aug 10 1663942.35 1.5 Bullish 2
Jul 10 1641567.83 1.1 Bullish 2
Jun 10 1637316.84 1.0 Bullish 2
May 10 1635515.62 -0.2 Bullish 2
Apr 10 1635508.84 0.2 Bullish 2
Mar 10 1638727.96 0.1 Bullish 2
Feb 10 1636229.28 -0.7 Bullish 2
Jan 10 1652412.54 -0.6 Bullish 2
Dec 09 1638940.01 -0.1 Bullish 2
Nov 09 1631807.99 -1.0 Bullish 2
Oct 09 1630060.30 -1.4 Bullish 2
Sep 09 1642237.90 -1.1 Bullish 2
Aug 09 1639744.19 -1.0 Bullish 2
Jul 09 1623568.00 -1.2 Bullish 2
Jun 09 1621489.89 -1.0 Bullish 2
May 09 1638150.17 0.1 Bullish 2
Apr 09 1632530.13 -0.1 Bullish 2
Mar 09 1637818.47 0.5 Bullish 2
Feb 09 1648444.77 1.3 Bullish 2
Jan 09 1662044.13 1.8 Bullish 2
Dec 08 1639791.92 2.0 Bullish 2
Nov 08 1647778.75 2.3 Bullish 2
Oct 08 1653842.63 2.6 Bullish 2
Sep 08 1660785.04 3.2 Bullish 2
Aug 08 1656495.57 3.6 Bullish 2
Jul 08 1642890.70 4.4 Bullish 2
Jun 08 1637202.72 4.9 Bullish 2
May 08 1637285.80 5.1 Bullish 2
Apr 08 1633768.99 5.3 Bullish 2
Mar 08 1629484.21 5.3 Bullish 2
Feb 08 1627632.35 5.5 Bullish 2
Jan 08 1632138.43 5.4 Bullish 2
Dec 07 1607851.24 4.9 Bullish 2
Nov 07 1611197.63 5.3 Bullish 2
Oct 07 1611845.65 5.4 Bullish 2
Sep 07 1609437.43 4.9 Bullish 2
Aug 07 1598724.70 4.9 Bullish 2
Jul 07 1573539.95 4.9 Bullish 2
Jun 07 1560591.68 4.7 Bullish 2
May 07 1558092.45 3.5 Bullish 2
Apr 07 1551148.43 3.3 Bullish 2
Mar 07 1547499.00 3.4 Bullish 2
Feb 07 1543399.68 3.5 Bullish 2
Jan 07 1549138.80 3.2 Bullish 2
Dec 06 1532838.92 4.7 Bullish 2
Nov 06 1529705.32 4.7 Bullish 2
Oct 06 1529041.96 4.6 Bullish 2
Sep 06 1534937.18 5.2 Bullish 2
Aug 06 1523701.98 4.8 Bullish 2
Jul 06 1500132.40 4.5 Bullish 2
Jun 06 1490395.55 4.6 Bullish 2
May 06 1504733.31 6.2 Bullish 2
Apr 06 1501501.25 6.1 Bullish 2
Mar 06 1496007.13 6.0 Bullish 2
Feb 06 1490837.55 6.0 Bullish 2
Jan 06 1500939.00 7.0 Bullish 2
Dec 05 1463872.23 4.9 Bullish 2
Nov 05 1461121.02 5.2 Bullish 2
Oct 05 1462419.16 5.5 Bullish 2
Sep 05 1459685.72 6.4 Bullish 2
Aug 05 1453964.43 6.9 Bullish 2
Jul 05 1435365.52 6.7 Bullish 2
Jun 05 1424518.99 6.3 Bullish 2
May 05 1417424.66 6.0 Bullish 2
Apr 05 1415486.43 6.3 Bullish 2
Mar 05 1411075.22 6.3 Bullish 2
Feb 05 1406626.93 6.4 Bullish 2
Jan 05 1402289.52 5.6 Bullish 2
Dec 04 1395697.93 6.3 Bullish 2
Nov 04 1389343.7 6.6 Bullish 2
Oct 04 1386014.74 6.2 Bullish 2
Sep 04 1372150.49 6.0 Bullish 2
Aug 04 1359777.59 5.8 Bullish 2
Jul 04 1344656.94 5.9 Bullish 2
Jun 04 1340227.45 6.1 Bullish 2
May 04 1337624.85 6.2 Bullish 2
Apr 04 1331680.54 6.6 Bullish 2
Mar 04 1327878.7 7.2 Bullish 2
Feb 04 1322289.17 7.1 Bullish 2
Jan 04 1327476.72 7.3 Bullish 2
Dec 03 1312544.26 7.2 Bullish 2
Nov 03 1303646.14 7.1 Bullish 2
Oct 03 1305144.42 7.5 Bullish 2
Sep 03 1294972.25 7.0 Bullish 2
Aug 03 1284833.05 6.3 Bullish 2
Jul 03 1269957.77 6.0 Bullish 2
Jun 03 1262595.74 6.2 Bullish 2
May 03 1259353.5 6.5 Bullish 2
Apr 03 1248788.1 6.3 Bullish 2
Mar 03 1238478.91 5.7 Bullish 2
Feb 03 1234108.04 5.8 Bullish 2
Jan 03 1237105.99 6.5 Bullish 2
Dec 02 1224884.89 5.9 Bullish 2
Nov 02 1217097.65 6.1 Bullish 2
Oct 02 1213582.14 7.6 Bullish 2
Sep 02 1210206.67 9.1 Bearish 0
Aug 02 1208186.94 9.8 Bearish 0
Jul 02 1197648.49 10.4 Bearish 0
Jun 02 1188428.31 10.5 Bearish 0
May 02 1182387.42 10.7 Bearish 0
Apr 02 1174856.17 10.6 Bearish 0
Mar 02 1172048.27 11.0 Bearish 0
Feb 02 1166366.07 11.1 Bearish 0
Jan 02 1161345.56 10.5 Bearish 0
Dec 01 1156733.43 11.3 Bearish 0
Nov 01 1146756.75 11.4 Bearish 0
Oct 01 1128207.26 10.6 Bearish 0
Sep 01 1109318.55 9.9 Bearish 0
Aug 01 1100479.68 10.5 Bearish 0
Jul 01 1084752.17 10.9 Bearish 0
Jun 01 1075220.03 11.4 Bearish 0
May 01 1068285.06 12.8 Bearish 0
Apr 01 1062273.97 13.0 Bearish 0
Mar 01 1055551.22 12.7 Bearish 0
Feb 01 1050058.82 12.6 Bearish 0
Jan 01 1050950.82 12.8 Bearish 0
Dec 00 1039020.17 12.2 Bearish 0
Nov 00 1029799.79 11.9 Bearish 0
Oct 00 1020170.88 11.7 Bearish 0
Sep 00 1009161.52 11.2 Bearish 0
Aug 00 996335.45 10.4 Bearish 0
Jul 00 978124.18 10.2 Bearish 0
Jun 00 964822.44 9.8 Bearish 0
May 00 946914.73 8.3 Bullish 2
Apr 00 940205.48 8.6 Bullish 2
Mar 00 936952.51 8.6 Bullish 2
Feb 00 932242.91 9.0 Bearish 0
Jan 00 931435.19 9.4 Bearish 0
Dec 99 926154.75 9.8 Bearish 0
Nov 99 919959.87 9.3 Bearish 0
Oct 99 913144.47 9.0 Bullish 2
Sep 99 907765.32 8.9 Bullish 2
Aug 99 902091.37 9.3 Bearish 0
Jul 99 887243.36 8.5 Bullish 2
Jun 99 878571.44 8.8 Bullish 2
May 99 874215.28 9.7 Bearish 0
Apr 99 865415.45 9.0 Bearish 0
Mar 99 863061.78 9.4 Bearish 0
Feb 99 855126.01 9.1 Bearish 0
Jan 99 851627.42 8.4 Bullish 2
Dec 98 843612 7.0 Bullish 2
Nov 98 841688.9 7.8 Bullish 2
Oct 98 837773.25 7.1 Bullish 2
Sep 98 833620.46 7.1 Bullish 2
Aug 98 825141.22 6.7 Bullish 2
Jul 98 817433.07 6.6 Bullish 2
Jun 98 807854.61 5.7 Bullish 2
May 98 796924.95 5.0 Bullish 2
Apr 98 793753.94 4.8 Bullish 2
Mar 98 788575.62 5.4 Bullish 2
Feb 98 783580.34 5.0 Bullish 2
Jan 98 785601.95 4.9 Bullish 2
Dec 97 788631.92 5.2 Bullish 2
Nov 97 781036.52 4.5 Bullish 2
Oct 97 782329.45 4.9 Bullish 2
Sep 97 778108.66 4.4 Bullish 2
Jul 97 773651.17 4.4 Bullish 2
Aug 97 766624.67 4.7 Bullish 2
Jun 97 764115.83 5.4 Bullish 2
May 97 758750.39 6.1 Bullish 2
Apr 97 757290.07 6.4 Bullish 2
Mar 97 748476.36 6.0 Bullish 2
Feb 97 746216.5 6.2 Bullish 2
Jan 97 749059.68 6.6 Bullish 2
Dec 96 749461.16 6.6 Bullish 2
Nov 96 747641.99 7.1 Bullish 2
Oct 96 746139.56 8.9 Bullish 2
Sep 96 745116.34 9.2 Bearish 0
Aug 96 741036.38 9.9 Bearish 0
Jul 96 732091 9.8 Bearish 0
Jun 96 724850.56 9.6 Bearish 0
May 96 715061.32 9.2 Bearish 0
Apr 96 711639.71 9.4 Bearish 0
Mar 96 706019.86 9.8 Bearish 0
Feb 96 702335.16 10.4 Bearish 0
Jan 96 702764.09 9.8 Bearish 0
Dec 95 703212.33 10.2 Bearish 0
Nov 95 698400.98 12.4 Bearish 0
Oct 95 684861.16 10.6 Bearish 0
Sep 95 682508.72 11.6 Bearish 0
Aug 95 674456.83 12.6 Bearish 0
Jul 95 667027.72 13.2 Bearish 0
Jun 95 661372.32 12.6 Bearish 0
May 95 654554.74 12.9 Bearish 0
Apr 95 650300.36 13.5 Bearish 0
Mar 95 642972.96 13.3 Bearish 0
Feb 95 636314.64 13.2 Bearish 0
Jan 95 639956.38 14.0 Bearish 0
Dec 94 637981.47 13.7 Bearish 0
Nov 94 621307.72 12.6 Bearish 0
Oct 94 619499.15 12.9 Bearish 0
Sep 94 611328 12.3 Bearish 0
Aug 94 598788 11.1 Bearish 0
Jul 94 589162 10.5 Bearish 0
Jun 94 587333 10.4 Bearish 0
May 94 579799.25 9.8 Bearish 0
Apr 94 572974.75 8.1 Bullish 2
Mar 94 567476 8.0 Bullish 2
Feb 94 562148.8 6.3 Bullish 2
Jan 94 561348.2 5.9 Bullish 2
Dec 93 561158 5.4 Bullish 2
Nov 93 552023.91 4.3 Bullish 2
Oct 93 548899.09 4.2 Bullish 2
Sep 93 544380 2.8 Bullish 2
Aug 93 539147.85 2.0 Bullish 2
Jul 93 533177.92 1.5 Bullish 2
Jun 93 531798 1.4 Bullish 2
May 93 527844.24 0.4 Bullish 2
Apr 93 530111.76 0.5 Bullish 2
Mar 93 525495 -0.8 Bullish 2
Feb 93 528652.62 -0.6 Bullish 2
Jan 93 530251.38 -1.0 Bullish 2
Dec 92 532511 -1.1 Bullish 2
Nov 92 529077.91 -1.5 Bullish 2
Oct 92 526770.09 -2.4 Bullish 2
Sep 92 529775 -2.7 Bullish 2
Aug 92 528786.02 -3.4 Bullish 2
Jul 92 525208.01 -4.2 Bullish 2
Jun 92 524516 -4.9 Bullish 2
May 92 525718.84 -5.1 Bullish 2
Apr 92 527395.16 -5.2 Bullish 2
Mar 92 529614 -5.1 Bullish 2
Feb 92 531812.84 -5.6 Bullish 2
Jan 92 535420.16 -6.0 Bullish 2
Dec 91 538492 -6.1 Bullish 2
Nov 91 537243.12 -6.8 Bullish 2
Oct 91 539486.88 -6.8 Bullish 2
Sep 91 544748 -5.9 Bullish 2
Aug 91 547512.44 -5.3 Bullish 2
Jul 91 548501.22 -4.8 Bullish 2
Jun 91 551631 -4.1 Bullish 2
May 91 553785.46 -3.4 Bullish 2
Apr 91 556537.54 -3.4 Bullish 2
Mar 91 558300 -3.3 Bullish 2
Feb 91 563386.51 -2.9 Bullish 2
Jan 91 569372.49 -2.7 Bullish 2
Dec 90 573482 -2.3 Bullish 2
Nov 90 576219.69 -1.5 Bullish 2
Oct 90 578872.31 -0.8 Bullish 2
Sep 90 578649 -0.6 Bullish 2
Aug 90 578289.15 -0.2 Bullish 2
Jul 90 575908.08 0.0 Bullish 2
Jun 90 575192 0.3 Bullish 2
May 90 573515.63 0.4 Bullish 2
Apr 90 576249.37 1.4 Bullish 2
Mar 90 577400 2.2 Bullish 2
Feb 90 580283.21 3.2 Bullish 2
Jan 90 584940.79 3.8 Bullish 2
Dec 89 586990 6.6 Bullish 2
Nov 89 584749.97 6.5 Bullish 2
Oct 89 583531.03 6.2 Bullish 2
Sep 89 582132 5.9 Bullish 2
Aug 89 579395.54 5.7 Bullish 2
Jul 89 575777.77 6.3 Bullish 2
Jun 89 573724 6.5 Bullish 2
May 89 571364.09 6.4 Bullish 2
Apr 89 568479.91 6.6 Bullish 2
Mar 89 564722 6.9 Bullish 2
Feb 89 562400.77 6.8 Bullish 2
Jan 89 563399.23 6.9 Bullish 2
Dec 88 550746.5 4.1 Bullish 2
Nov 88 548994.34 3.7 Bullish 2
Oct 88 549703.66 4.3 Bullish 2
Sep 88 549472 4.8 Bullish 2
Aug 88 548138.04 5.2 Bullish 2
Jul 88 541543.52 5.1 Bullish 2
Jun 88 538757 5.2 Bullish 2
May 88 536821.95 5.5 Bullish 2
Apr 88 533442.05 5.2 Bullish 2
Mar 88 528353 5.0 Bullish 2
Feb 88 526788.25 4.1 Bullish 2
Jan 88 526900.75 3.1 Bullish 2
Dec 87 529001 2.2 Bullish 2
Nov 87 529320.92 2.5 Bullish 2
Oct 87 526967.08 1.5 Bullish 2
Sep 87 524272 2.1 Bullish 2
Aug 87 520966.37 3.2 Bullish 2
Jul 87 515038.18 3.1 Bullish 2
Jun 87 511892 3.5 Bullish 2
May 87 508920.4 3.9 Bullish 2
Apr 87 507210.6 4.9 Bullish 2
Mar 87 502983 5.2 Bullish 2
Feb 87 505817.88 6.0 Bullish 2
Jan 87 510846.12 7.1 Bullish 2
Dec 86 517453      
Nov 86 516628.99      
Oct 86 519034.01      
Sep 86 513627      
Aug 86 504776.63      
Jul 86 499566.32      
Jun 86 494812      
May 86 490044.15      
Apr 86 483745.85      
Mar 86 478150      
Feb 86 477201.02      
Jan 86 477021.98      

 

 

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