InvestStrat

Installment Debt Indicator

Loan demand has an important effect on interest rates. High demand for loans puts upward pressure on rates, whilst low demand works to lower interest rates. There are many major sources of loan demand including federal, state, and local borrowings together with corporate borrowings in commercial paper debt, longer term bond markets, mortgage debt and consumer installment debt. Zweig’s studies showed him that consumer installment debt has been a good predictor of stock market changes.

Installment debt is issued with the condition of regularly occurring intervals of payment by the debtor, until the principal and interest are paid in full. It is a loan for larger items such as cars that individuals do not have the ready cash to purchase.

Consumer debt includes mortgage debt, credit card debt and installment debt (mainly formed from automobile loans and student loans). Zweig suggests you use the Federal Reserve G.19 statistic for consumer installment debt. However the Fed now refers to this as Consumer Credit Outstanding and the consumer installment debt is now the nonrevolving part of this figure.

Calculation

Consumer Installment Debt – calculated using a non-seasonally adjusted number.

Take total for the month and divide by the total for the same month a year ago. Then subtract 1.0. That gives you the percentage change in installment debt on a year-to-year basis.

Where the data is missing, the inferred signal points are marked in red.

Rules

A buy signal is given when the year-to-year change in installment debt has been falling and drops to under 9%.

A sell signal comes when the year to year change has been rising and hits 9% or more.

Installment Debt Indicator

When the installment debt indicator gives a buy signal award 2 model points

When it gives a sell signal give zero points

 

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Installment Debt Indicator

Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Outstanding Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Date G.19 Percentage Change Year-on-Year Signal Points
Due to a lack of data some figures are projections and these are shown in red.
Sept 18       2
Aug 18       2
July 18 2879456.92 4.7 Bullish 2
June18 2865761.05 4.6 Bullish 2
May18 2855039.25 4.6 Bullish 2
Apr 18 2842767.71 4.5 Bullish 2
Mar 18 2833731.88 4.6 Bullish 2
Feb 18 2833112.66 4.6 Bullish 2
Jan 18 2831319.17 4.6 Bullish 2
Dec 17 2831302.61 4.8 Bullish 2
Nov 17 2799854.68 4.9 Bullish 2
Oct 17 2792872.81 4.7 Bullish 2
Sep 17 2782853.45 4.8 Bullish 2
Aug 17 2772782.84 5.3 Bullish 2
Jul 17 2750755.65 5.9 Bullish 2
Jun 17 2739571.47 5.9 Bullish 2
May 17 2730527.54 5.9 Bullish 2
Apr 17 2720962.10 6.1 Bullish 2
Mar 17 2709218.44 6.4 Bullish 2
Feb 17 2708726.05 6.6 Bullish 2
Jan 17 2705715.60 6.6 Bullish 2
Dec 16 2674230.29 6.7 Bullish 2
Nov 16 2670259.64 2.7 Bullish 2
Oct 16 2668711.65 2.7 Bullish 2
Sep 16 2655210.24 2.6 Bullish 2
Aug 16 2634125.94 2.9 Bullish 2
July 16 2597823.84 2.6 Bullish 2
June16 2586554.18 2.6 Bullish 2
May 16 2577973.73 3.1 Bullish 2
Apr 16 2563474.26 3.1 Bullish 2
Mar 16 2546979.93 3.0 Bullish 2
Feb 16 2542068.33 3.2 Bullish 2
Jan 16 2538195.44 3.3 Bullish 2
Dec 15 2505697.20 3.3 Bullish 2
Nov 15 2600804.89 8.0 Bullish 2
Oct 15 2597772.53 8.1 Bullish 2
Sep 15 2588423.38 8.0 Bullish 2
Aug 15 2560817.75 7.8 Bullish 2
July 15 2532909.25 8.1 Bullish 2
June 15 2520673.59 8.2 Bullish 2
May 15 2500044.04 8.1 Bullish 2
Apr 15 2486264.06 8.1 Bullish 2
Mar 15 2472088.90 8.2 Bullish 2
Feb 15 2464171.05 8.3 Bullish 2
Jan 15 2456396.51 8.2 Bullish 2
Dec 14 2425446.44 8.4 Bullish 2
Nov 14 2408192.36 8.0 Bullish 2
Oct 14 2402120.68 8.0 Bullish 2
Sept 14 2397662.76 8.3 Bullish 2
Aug 14 2375588.05 8.4 Bullish 2
Jul 14 2343777.84 8.5 Bullish 2
Jun 14 2329470.32 8.4 Bullish 2
May 14 2313039.58 8.3 Bullish 2
Apr 14 2299533.44 8.2 Bullish 2
Mar 14 2283981.98 8.0 Bullish 2
Feb 14 2276004.51 7.8 Bullish 2
Jan 14 2271098.00 7.9 Bullish 2
Dec 13 2237792.98 7.9 Bullish 2
Nov 13 2230423.52 8.1 Bullish 2
Oct 13 2223323.97 8.3 Bullish 2
Sep 13 2214016.93 8.3 Bullish 2
Aug 13 2191782.76 8.1 Bullish 2
Jul 13 2160477.25 8.1 Bullish 2
Jun 13 2148716.81 8.0 Bullish 2
May 13 2135014.61 8.1 Bullish 2
Apr 13 2125607.82 8.2 Bullish 2
Mar 13 2115579.08 8.5 Bullish 2
Feb 13 2112296.35 8.7 Bullish 2
Jan 13 2105521.86 8.1 Bullish 2
Dec 12 2074007.16 8.2 Bullish 2
Nov 12 2063527.19 8.0 Bullish 2
Oct 12 2,053,097.71 8.0 Bullish 2
Sep 12 2043493.46 7.7 Bullish 2
Aug 12 2027598.94 7.6 Bullish 2
Jul 12 1997851.46 6.5 Bullish 2
Jun 12 1988941.59 7.3 Bullish 2
May 12 1975289.43 6.9 Bullish 2
Apr 12 1963846.90 6.4 Bullish 2
Mar 12 1949274.81 6.1 Bullish 2
Feb 12 1943581.30 5.7 Bullish 2
Jan 12 1947418.59 5.8 Bullish 2
Dec 11 1916444.63 6.0 Bullish 2
Nov 11 1909837.06 13.4 Bearish 0
Oct 11 1900348.01 12.8 Bearish 0
Sep 11 1897407.94 13.3 Bearish 0
Aug 11 1883700.85 13.2 Bearish 0
Jul 11 1875143.00 14.2 Bearish 0
Jun 11 1853068.57 13.2 Bearish 0
May 11 1848023.10 13.0 Bearish 0
Apr 11 1845226.60 12.8 Bearish 0
Mar 11 1836650.10 12.1 Bearish 0
Feb 11 1838784.60 12.4 Bearish 0
Jan 11 1840463.79 11.4 Bearish 0
Dec 10 1807708.59 10.3 Bearish 0
Nov 10 1684756.76 3.2 Bullish 2
Oct 10 1684387.64 3.3 Bullish 2
Sep 10 1674800.72 2.0 Bullish 2
Aug 10 1663968.97 1.5 Bullish 2
Jul 10 1641599.37 1.1 Bullish 2
Jun 10 1637333.33 1.0 Bullish 2
May 10 1635535.01 -0.2 Bullish 2
Apr 10 1635530.92 0.2 Bullish 2
Mar 10 1638758.02 0.1 Bullish 2
Feb 10 1636259.68 -0.7 Bullish 2
Jan 10 1652454.08 -0.6 Bullish 2
Dec 09 1638940.01 -0.1 Bullish 2
Nov 09 1631832.03 -1.0 Bullish 2
Oct 09 1630095.46 -1.4 Bullish 2
Sep 09 1642273.16 -1.1 Bullish 2
Aug 09 1639773.14 -1.0 Bullish 2
Jul 09 1623602.08 -1.2 Bullish 2
Jun 09 1621512.54 -1.0 Bullish 2
May 09 1638184.94 0.1 Bullish 2
Apr 09 1632557.69 -0.1 Bullish 2
Mar 09 1637851.78 0.5 Bullish 2
Feb 09 1648453.72 1.3 Bullish 2
Jan 09 1662057.78 1.8 Bullish 2
Dec 08 1639791.92 2.0 Bullish 2
Nov 08 1647786.87 2.3 Bullish 2
Oct 08 1653850.03 2.6 Bullish 2
Sep 08 1660794.94 3.2 Bullish 2
Aug 08 1656506.43 3.6 Bullish 2
Jul 08 1642900.64 4.4 Bullish 2
Jun 08 1637223.17 4.9 Bullish 2
May 08 1637320.21 5.1 Bullish 2
Apr 08 1633788.98 5.3 Bullish 2
Mar 08 1629494.57 5.3 Bullish 2
Feb 08 1627615.41 5.5 Bullish 2
Jan 08 1632111.62 5.4 Bullish 2
Dec 07 1607851.24 4.9 Bullish 2
Nov 07 1611197.63 5.3 Bullish 2
Oct 07 1611845.65 5.4 Bullish 2
Sep 07 1609437.43 4.9 Bullish 2
Aug 07 1598724.70 4.9 Bullish 2
Jul 07 1573539.95 4.9 Bullish 2
Jun 07 1560591.68 4.7 Bullish 2
May 07 1558092.45 3.5 Bullish 2
Apr 07 1551148.43 3.3 Bullish 2
Mar 07 1547499.00 3.4 Bullish 2
Feb 07 1543399.68 3.5 Bullish 2
Jan 07 1549138.80 3.2 Bullish 2
Dec 06 1532838.92 4.7 Bullish 2
Nov 06 1529705.32 4.7 Bullish 2
Oct 06 1529041.96 4.6 Bullish 2
Sep 06 1534937.18 5.2 Bullish 2
Aug 06 1523701.98 4.8 Bullish 2
Jul 06 1500132.40 4.5 Bullish 2
Jun 06 1490395.55 4.6 Bullish 2
May 06 1504733.31 6.2 Bullish 2
Apr 06 1501501.25 6.1 Bullish 2
Mar 06 1496007.13 6.0 Bullish 2
Feb 06 1490837.55 6.0 Bullish 2
Jan 06 1500939.00 7.0 Bullish 2
Dec 05 1463872.23 4.9 Bullish 2
Nov 05 1461121.02 5.2 Bullish 2
Oct 05 1462419.16 5.5 Bullish 2
Sep 05 1459685.72 6.4 Bullish 2
Aug 05 1453964.43 6.9 Bullish 2
Jul 05 1435365.52 6.7 Bullish 2
Jun 05 1424518.99 6.3 Bullish 2
May 05 1417424.66 6.0 Bullish 2
Apr 05 1415486.43 6.3 Bullish 2
Mar 05 1411075.22 6.3 Bullish 2
Feb 05 1406626.93 6.4 Bullish 2
Jan 05 1402289.52 5.6 Bullish 2
Dec 04 1395697.93 6.3 Bullish 2
Nov 04 1389343.7 6.6 Bullish 2
Oct 04 1386014.74 6.2 Bullish 2
Sep 04 1372150.49 6.0 Bullish 2
Aug 04 1359777.59 5.8 Bullish 2
Jul 04 1344656.94 5.9 Bullish 2
Jun 04 1340227.45 6.1 Bullish 2
May 04 1337624.85 6.2 Bullish 2
Apr 04 1331680.54 6.6 Bullish 2
Mar 04 1327878.7 7.2 Bullish 2
Feb 04 1322289.17 7.1 Bullish 2
Jan 04 1327476.72 7.3 Bullish 2
Dec 03 1312544.26 7.2 Bullish 2
Nov 03 1303646.14 7.1 Bullish 2
Oct 03 1305144.42 7.5 Bullish 2
Sep 03 1294972.25 7.0 Bullish 2
Aug 03 1284833.05 6.3 Bullish 2
Jul 03 1269957.77 6.0 Bullish 2
Jun 03 1262595.74 6.2 Bullish 2
May 03 1259353.5 6.5 Bullish 2
Apr 03 1248788.1 6.3 Bullish 2
Mar 03 1238478.91 5.7 Bullish 2
Feb 03 1234108.04 5.8 Bullish 2
Jan 03 1237105.99 6.5 Bullish 2
Dec 02 1224884.89 5.9 Bullish 2
Nov 02 1217097.65 6.1 Bullish 2
Oct 02 1213582.14 7.6 Bullish 2
Sep 02 1210206.67 9.1 Bearish 0
Aug 02 1208186.94 9.8 Bearish 0
Jul 02 1197648.49 10.4 Bearish 0
Jun 02 1188428.31 10.5 Bearish 0
May 02 1182387.42 10.7 Bearish 0
Apr 02 1174856.17 10.6 Bearish 0
Mar 02 1172048.27 11.0 Bearish 0
Feb 02 1166366.07 11.1 Bearish 0
Jan 02 1161345.56 10.5 Bearish 0
Dec 01 1156733.43 11.3 Bearish 0
Nov 01 1146756.75 11.4 Bearish 0
Oct 01 1128207.26 10.6 Bearish 0
Sep 01 1109318.55 9.9 Bearish 0
Aug 01 1100479.68 10.5 Bearish 0
Jul 01 1084752.17 10.9 Bearish 0
Jun 01 1075220.03 11.4 Bearish 0
May 01 1068285.06 12.8 Bearish 0
Apr 01 1062273.97 13.0 Bearish 0
Mar 01 1055551.22 12.7 Bearish 0
Feb 01 1050058.82 12.6 Bearish 0
Jan 01 1050950.82 12.8 Bearish 0
Dec 00 1039020.17 12.2 Bearish 0
Nov 00 1029799.79 11.9 Bearish 0
Oct 00 1020170.88 11.7 Bearish 0
Sep 00 1009161.52 11.2 Bearish 0
Aug 00 996335.45 10.4 Bearish 0
Jul 00 978124.18 10.2 Bearish 0
Jun 00 964822.44 9.8 Bearish 0
May 00 946914.73 8.3 Bullish 2
Apr 00 940205.48 8.6 Bullish 2
Mar 00 936952.51 8.6 Bullish 2
Feb 00 932242.91 9.0 Bearish 0
Jan 00 931435.19 9.4 Bearish 0
Dec 99 926154.75 9.8 Bearish 0
Nov 99 919959.87 9.3 Bearish 0
Oct 99 913144.47 9.0 Bullish 2
Sep 99 907765.32 8.9 Bullish 2
Aug 99 902091.37 9.3 Bearish 0
Jul 99 887243.36 8.5 Bullish 2
Jun 99 878571.44 8.8 Bullish 2
May 99 874215.28 9.7 Bearish 0
Apr 99 865415.45 9.0 Bearish 0
Mar 99 863061.78 9.4 Bearish 0
Feb 99 855126.01 9.1 Bearish 0
Jan 99 851627.42 8.4 Bullish 2
Dec 98 843612 7.0 Bullish 2
Nov 98 841688.9 7.8 Bullish 2
Oct 98 837773.25 7.1 Bullish 2
Sep 98 833620.46 7.1 Bullish 2
Aug 98 825141.22 6.7 Bullish 2
Jul 98 817433.07 6.6 Bullish 2
Jun 98 807854.61 5.7 Bullish 2
May 98 796924.95 5.0 Bullish 2
Apr 98 793753.94 4.8 Bullish 2
Mar 98 788575.62 5.4 Bullish 2
Feb 98 783580.34 5.0 Bullish 2
Jan 98 785601.95 4.9 Bullish 2
Dec 97 788631.92 5.2 Bullish 2
Nov 97 781036.52 4.5 Bullish 2
Oct 97 782329.45 4.9 Bullish 2
Sep 97 778108.66 4.4 Bullish 2
Jul 97 773651.17 4.4 Bullish 2
Aug 97 766624.67 4.7 Bullish 2
Jun 97 764115.83 5.4 Bullish 2
May 97 758750.39 6.1 Bullish 2
Apr 97 757290.07 6.4 Bullish 2
Mar 97 748476.36 6.0 Bullish 2
Feb 97 746216.5 6.2 Bullish 2
Jan 97 749059.68 6.6 Bullish 2
Dec 96 749461.16 6.6 Bullish 2
Nov 96 747641.99 7.1 Bullish 2
Oct 96 746139.56 8.9 Bullish 2
Sep 96 745116.34 9.2 Bearish 0
Aug 96 741036.38 9.9 Bearish 0
Jul 96 732091 9.8 Bearish 0
Jun 96 724850.56 9.6 Bearish 0
May 96 715061.32 9.2 Bearish 0
Apr 96 711639.71 9.4 Bearish 0
Mar 96 706019.86 9.8 Bearish 0
Feb 96 702335.16 10.4 Bearish 0
Jan 96 702764.09 9.8 Bearish 0
Dec 95 703212.33 10.2 Bearish 0
Nov 95 698400.98 12.4 Bearish 0
Oct 95 684861.16 10.6 Bearish 0
Sep 95 682508.72 11.6 Bearish 0
Aug 95 674456.83 12.6 Bearish 0
Jul 95 667027.72 13.2 Bearish 0
Jun 95 661372.32 12.6 Bearish 0
May 95 654554.74 12.9 Bearish 0
Apr 95 650300.36 13.5 Bearish 0
Mar 95 642972.96 13.3 Bearish 0
Feb 95 636314.64 13.2 Bearish 0
Jan 95 639956.38 14.0 Bearish 0
Dec 94 637981.47 13.7 Bearish 0
Nov 94 621307.72 12.6 Bearish 0
Oct 94 619499.15 12.9 Bearish 0
Sep 94 611328 12.3 Bearish 0
Aug 94 598788 11.1 Bearish 0
Jul 94 589162 10.5 Bearish 0
Jun 94 587333 10.4 Bearish 0
May 94 579799.25 9.8 Bearish 0
Apr 94 572974.75 8.1 Bullish 2
Mar 94 567476 8.0 Bullish 2
Feb 94 562148.8 6.3 Bullish 2
Jan 94 561348.2 5.9 Bullish 2
Dec 93 561158 5.4 Bullish 2
Nov 93 552023.91 4.3 Bullish 2
Oct 93 548899.09 4.2 Bullish 2
Sep 93 544380 2.8 Bullish 2
Aug 93 539147.85 2.0 Bullish 2
Jul 93 533177.92 1.5 Bullish 2
Jun 93 531798 1.4 Bullish 2
May 93 527844.24 0.4 Bullish 2
Apr 93 530111.76 0.5 Bullish 2
Mar 93 525495 -0.8 Bullish 2
Feb 93 528652.62 -0.6 Bullish 2
Jan 93 530251.38 -1.0 Bullish 2
Dec 92 532511 -1.1 Bullish 2
Nov 92 529077.91 -1.5 Bullish 2
Oct 92 526770.09 -2.4 Bullish 2
Sep 92 529775 -2.7 Bullish 2
Aug 92 528786.02 -3.4 Bullish 2
Jul 92 525208.01 -4.2 Bullish 2
Jun 92 524516 -4.9 Bullish 2
May 92 525718.84 -5.1 Bullish 2
Apr 92 527395.16 -5.2 Bullish 2
Mar 92 529614 -5.1 Bullish 2
Feb 92 531812.84 -5.6 Bullish 2
Jan 92 535420.16 -6.0 Bullish 2
Dec 91 538492 -6.1 Bullish 2
Nov 91 537243.12 -6.8 Bullish 2
Oct 91 539486.88 -6.8 Bullish 2
Sep 91 544748 -5.9 Bullish 2
Aug 91 547512.44 -5.3 Bullish 2
Jul 91 548501.22 -4.8 Bullish 2
Jun 91 551631 -4.1 Bullish 2
May 91 553785.46 -3.4 Bullish 2
Apr 91 556537.54 -3.4 Bullish 2
Mar 91 558300 -3.3 Bullish 2
Feb 91 563386.51 -2.9 Bullish 2
Jan 91 569372.49 -2.7 Bullish 2
Dec 90 573482 -2.3 Bullish 2
Nov 90 576219.69 -1.5 Bullish 2
Oct 90 578872.31 -0.8 Bullish 2
Sep 90 578649 -0.6 Bullish 2
Aug 90 578289.15 -0.2 Bullish 2
Jul 90 575908.08 0.0 Bullish 2
Jun 90 575192 0.3 Bullish 2
May 90 573515.63 0.4 Bullish 2
Apr 90 576249.37 1.4 Bullish 2
Mar 90 577400 2.2 Bullish 2
Feb 90 580283.21 3.2 Bullish 2
Jan 90 584940.79 3.8 Bullish 2
Dec 89 586990 6.6 Bullish 2
Nov 89 584749.97 6.5 Bullish 2
Oct 89 583531.03 6.2 Bullish 2
Sep 89 582132 5.9 Bullish 2
Aug 89 579395.54 5.7 Bullish 2
Jul 89 575777.77 6.3 Bullish 2
Jun 89 573724 6.5 Bullish 2
May 89 571364.09 6.4 Bullish 2
Apr 89 568479.91 6.6 Bullish 2
Mar 89 564722 6.9 Bullish 2
Feb 89 562400.77 6.8 Bullish 2
Jan 89 563399.23 6.9 Bullish 2
Dec 88 550746.5 4.1 Bullish 2
Nov 88 548994.34 3.7 Bullish 2
Oct 88 549703.66 4.3 Bullish 2
Sep 88 549472 4.8 Bullish 2
Aug 88 548138.04 5.2 Bullish 2
Jul 88 541543.52 5.1 Bullish 2
Jun 88 538757 5.2 Bullish 2
May 88 536821.95 5.5 Bullish 2
Apr 88 533442.05 5.2 Bullish 2
Mar 88 528353 5.0 Bullish 2
Feb 88 526788.25 4.1 Bullish 2
Jan 88 526900.75 3.1 Bullish 2
Dec 87 529001 2.2 Bullish 2
Nov 87 529320.92 2.5 Bullish 2
Oct 87 526967.08 1.5 Bullish 2
Sep 87 524272 2.1 Bullish 2
Aug 87 520966.37 3.2 Bullish 2
Jul 87 515038.18 3.1 Bullish 2
Jun 87 511892 3.5 Bullish 2
May 87 508920.4 3.9 Bullish 2
Apr 87 507210.6 4.9 Bullish 2
Mar 87 502983 5.2 Bullish 2
Feb 87 505817.88 6.0 Bullish 2
Jan 87 510846.12 7.1 Bullish 2
Dec 86 517453      
Nov 86 516628.99      
Oct 86 519034.01      
Sep 86 513627      
Aug 86 504776.63      
Jul 86 499566.32      
Jun 86 494812      
May 86 490044.15      
Apr 86 483745.85      
Mar 86 478150      
Feb 86 477201.02      
Jan 86 477021.98      

 

 

Monetary Model